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A Letter from Home…

   What’s Going On?!

          By now you’re probably spinning from the mixed predictions about the economy in general and the travel economy in particular. We certainly are. That’s the bad news. But there is good news, too: if the predictions support inaction, the data encourage action. And the actions can be very positive. Here’s what we mean —
          The scary “R” word — Recession — has been predicted long and strong by so many pundits and insiders that we innocent bystanders can be forgiven for believing that the economy is deeply mired in depths of negative numbers.
          But the data are mixed. The stock market is in positive territory for the last quarter of 2022 and the first month of 2023. Employment is at or near all-time highs, although not in all industries. Right now it’s Big Tech’s turn to downsize its staff. Inflation — another very scary word — seems to be subsiding in most sectors, but not all. Gas has dropped by as much as 25% in most states, returning to pre-Covid levels in many places. But grocery prices are way up and not easing. Egg prices are so high that hen fruit is being smuggled in from Mexico. And, with housing already in short supply, anti-inflation Fed interest rate increases have made buying or renting one’s next home unreasonable to untenable in the current market.
          Dire predictions have been made for the cost of heating homes this winter, but, so far, the unaffordable price increases feared have not materialized here in America. Similar projections of skyrocketing 2023 travel costs have – so far – needed to be revised. There are some notable jumps: Disney’s parks raised ticket prices dramatically, raising the ire of families for whom a trip to Disney World or Land is an assumed right of passage. And the airlines, assuming increased post-Covid “revenge travel” demand and sky-high energy costs for 2023, have pegged their published transatlantic fares with increases we expect to see in the health-care industry or in higher education. The biggest airfare jumps have been applied to the expanded high season (now stretching one week shy of 4 months, May 16 to September 8), reflecting the dates between college graduations and the restart of school after Labor Day. The airlines are not alone. In most countries, hotel and rental car prices, anticipating a tsunami of demand in 2023, have jumped like the airfares. But because the transatlantic airfares you pay are likely the single largest item in any overseas trip you book, we (and you) watch them most carefully.
          In travel, published fares are a kind of futures market, a kind of educated guessing and insider betting, but, like shelf prices at Walmart, published fares are always subject to change. In recent weeks we have begun to see airlines hedge their educated bets by announcing “sale fares” for spring and fall travel, and, this week for the first time this year, even for the high season. This usually happens because seats aren’t selling as quickly as expected in a competitive market when one or more airlines decide drop fares below the levels set by the so-called “flag carrier” of the destination. In France, the flag carrier is Air France. For Britain, think British Air. Lufthansa sets fares to Germany (and to Switzerland through its Swiss International Air Lines). And so on. Sometimes these rebellious sale fares remain one-offs, and soon die on the vine. But often in hotly contested markets, one airline’s sale fare leads to most other carriers matching the drop. And, rarely, a sale fare can initiate a fare war, with the potential to severely damage one or more airline’s profitability and future.
          Here at Home At First we monitor the airfare marketplace as a kind of stock market. We watch for significant fare changes. We scan for value-priced airfares that can save our clients real money. We use these usually short-term airfare sales to create our Current Travel Bargains, and we publicize these on our website and via our Travel Bargain Alerts emails to subscribers. Early in 2023, we are seeing considerable volatility in the airfare markets for certain destinations, especially for England, Wales, Ireland, Italy, and Switzerland. So far there has been little movement for Iceland, France, Portugal, and Scandinavia. But this too, can change, and, when it does, it will be without notice. Scandinavia, in particular, likes to announce very short term sales, even for the high season. Such sales can last only a few days, not enough time for us to get the word out to our customer base and expect a response in time to meet the sale deadline, making these sales a kind of bait-and-switch tactic.
          Nevertheless, if you are thinking of traveling overseas in 2023, contact us whether or not your chosen destination is affected by a Current Travel Bargain. Ask us for a free trip proposal with an “Instant Discount” quote. We’ll research the best current airfares, and if there are sale fares available, we will propose your trip using the lowest fare available.
          You need not let published fares and the predictions of pundits scare you off. 2023 just might be the year you travel overseas for below-budget cost. Importantly, traveling well and saving money start with a phone call or email to Home At First.

— Ron Fahnestock, Editor

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